Changes in Climate Extremes and Their Effect on Maize (Zea mays L.) Suitability Over Southern Africa

Southern Africa has been identified as one of the hotspot areas climate extremes increasing, at same time many communities in region are dependent on rain-fed agriculture, which is vulnerable to these rainfall and temperature extremes. The aim this study understand changes extreme indices during agricultural season under change how that affect modeling maize suitability Africa. We analyze its (consecutive dry days, heavy rain events prolonged events), (hot night temperatures, hot day temperatures frequency very days) from past (1986–2014) future (2036–2064) integrate into a model. Temperature projected increase both duration intensity, particularly eastern parts region. Also, consecutive days over larger season, while will be less sums, heavier intensity duration. Including improves efficiency model shows more severe than using season-long climatic variables. conclude complicate livelihood-climate nexus future, therefore, set comprehensive adaptation options for sector needed. These include use heat, drought high-intensity tolerant varieties, irrigation and/or soil water conservation techniques, some cases switching other crops.